Estimated SARS-CoV-2 infection rate and fatality risk in Gauteng Province, South Africa: a population-based seroepidemiological survey.

BACKGROUND: Limitations in laboratory testing capacity undermine the ability to quantify the overall burden of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection. METHODS: We undertook a population-based serosurvey for SARS-CoV-2 infection in 26 subdistricts, Gauteng Province (population 15.9 million), South Africa, to estimate SARS-CoV-2 infection, infection fatality rate (IFR) triangulating seroprevalence, recorded COVID-19 deaths and excess-mortality data. We employed three-stage random household sampling with a selection probability proportional to the subdistrict size, stratifying the subdistrict census-sampling frame by housing type and then selecting households from selected clusters. The survey started on 4 November 2020, 8 weeks after the end of the first wave (SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid amplification test positivity had declined to <10% for the first wave) and coincided with the peak of the second wave. The last sampling was performed on 22 January 2021, which was 9 weeks after the SARS-CoV-2 resurgence. Serum SARS-CoV-2 receptor-binding domain (RBD) immunoglobulin-G (IgG) was measured using a quantitative assay on the Luminex platform. RESULTS: From 6332 individuals in 3453 households, the overall RBD IgG seroprevalence was 19.1% [95% confidence interval (CI): 18.1-20.1%] and similar in children and adults. The seroprevalence varied from 5.5% to 43.2% across subdistricts. Conservatively, there were 2 897 120 (95% CI: 2 743 907-3 056 866) SARS-CoV-2 infections, yielding an infection rate of 19 090 per 100 000 until 9 January 2021, when 330 336 COVID-19 cases were recorded. The estimated IFR using recorded COVID-19 deaths (n = 8198) was 0.28% (95% CI: 0.27-0.30) and 0.67% (95% CI: 0.64-0.71) assuming 90% of modelled natural excess deaths were due to COVID-19 (n = 21 582). Notably, 53.8% (65/122) of individuals with previous self-reported confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection were RBD IgG seronegative. CONCLUSIONS: The calculated number of SARS-CoV-2 infections was 7.8-fold greater than the recorded COVID-19 cases. The calculated SARS-CoV-2 IFR varied 2.39-fold when calculated using reported COVID-19 deaths (0.28%) compared with excess-mortality-derived COVID-19-attributable deaths (0.67%). Waning RBD IgG may have inadvertently underestimated the number of SARS-CoV-2 infections and conversely overestimated the mortality risk. Epidemic preparedness and response planning for future COVID-19 waves will need to consider the true magnitude of infections, paying close attention to excess-mortality trends rather than absolute reported COVID-19 deaths.

Modelling cost benefit of community-oriented primary care in rural South Africa.

BACKGROUND: Globally, rural populations have poorer health and considerably lower levels of access to healthcare compared with urban populations. Although the drive to ensure universal coverage through community healthcare worker programmes has shown significant results elsewhere, their value has yet to be realised in South Africa. AIM: The aim of this study was to determine the potential impact, cost-effectiveness and benefit-to-cost ratio (BCR) of information and communications technology (ICT)-enabled community-oriented primary care (COPC) for rural and remote populations. SETTING: The Waterberg district of Limpopo province in South Africa is a rural mining area. The majority of 745 000 population are poor and in poor health. METHODS: The modelling considers condition-specific effectiveness, population age and characteristics, health-determined service demand, and costs of delivery and resources. RESULTS: Modelling showed 122 teams can deliver a full ICT-enabled COPC service package to 630 565 eligible people. Annually, at scale, it could yield 35 877 unadjusted life years saved and 994 deaths avoided at an average per capita service cost of R170.37, and R2668 per life year saved. There could be net annual savings of R120 million (R63.4m for Waterberg district) from reduced clinic (110.7m) and hospital outpatient (23 646) attendance and admissions. The service would inject R51.6m into community health worker (CHW) households and approximately R492m into district poverty reduction and economic growth. CONCLUSION: With a BCR of 3.4, ICT-enabled COPC is an affordable systemic investment in universal, pro-poor, integrated healthcare and makes community-based healthcare delivery particularly compelling in rural and remote areas.

Scaling community-based services in Gauteng, South Africa: A comparison of three workforce-planning scenarios.

BACKGROUND: The introduction of community-based services through community health workers is an opportunity to redefine the approach and practice of primary health care. Based on bestpractice community oriented primary care (COPC), a COPC planning toolkit has been developed to model the creation of a community-based tier in an integrated district health system. AIM: The article describes the methodologies and assumptions used to determine workforce numbers and service costs for three scenarios and applies them to the poorest 60% of the population in Gauteng, South Africa. SETTING: The study derives from a Gauteng Department of Health, Family Medicine (University of Pretoria) partnership to support information and communication technology (ICT)-enabled COPC through community-based health teams (termed as ward-based outreach teams). METHODS: The modelling uses national census age, gender and income data at small area level, provincial facility and national burden of disease data. Service calculations take into account multidimensional poverty, demand-adjusted burden of disease and available work time adjusted for conditions of employment and geography. RESULTS: Assuming the use of ICT for each, a health workforce of 14 819, 17 925 and 7303 is required per scenario (current practice, national norms and full-time employed COPC), respectively. Total service costs for the respective scenarios range from R1.1 billion, through R947 million to R783 million. CONCLUSION: Modelling shows that delivering ICT-enabled COPC with full-time employees is the optimal scenario. It requires the smallest workforce, is the most economical, even when individual community health worker costs of employment are twice those of current practice, and is systemically the most effective.

World Health Organization Global Disability Action Plan: The Mongolian Perspective.

OBJECTIVE: To provide an update on disability and rehabilitation in Mongolia, and to identify potential barriers and facilitators for implementation of the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Disability Action Plan (GDAP). METHODS: A 4-member rehabilitation team from the Royal Melbourne Hospital conducted an intensive 6-day workshop at the Mongolian National University of Medical Sciences, for local healthcare professionals (n = 77) from medical rehabilitation facilities (urban/rural, public/private) and non-governmental organizations. A modified Delphi method (interactive sessions, consensus agreement) identified challenges for rehabilitation service provision and disability education and attitudes, using GDAP objectives. RESULTS: The GDAP summary actions were considered useful for clinicians, policy-makers, government and persons with disabilities. The main challenges identified were: limited knowledge of disability services and rehabilitation within healthcare sectors; lack of coordination between sectors; geo-topographical issues; limited skilled workforces; lack of disability data, guidelines and accreditation standards; poor legislation and political commitment. The facilitators were: strong leadership; advocacy of disability-inclusive development; investment in local infrastructure/human resources; opportunities for coordination and partnerships between the healthcare sector and other stakeholders; research opportunities; and dissemination of information. CONCLUSION: Disability and rehabilitation is an emerging priority in Mongolia to address the rights and needs of persons with disabilities. The GDAP provides guidance to facilitate access and strengthen rehabilitation services.

World Health Organisation Global Disability Action Plan 2014-2021: Challenges and perspectives for physical medicine and rehabilitation in Pakistan.

OBJECTIVE: To provide an update on disability and outline potential barriers and facilitators for implementation of the World Health Organization Global Disability Action Plan (GDAP) in Pakistan. METHODS: A 6-day workshop at the Armed Forces Institute of Rehabilitation Medicine, Islamabad facilitated by rehabilitation staff from Royal Melbourne Hospital, Australia. Local healthcare professionals (n = 33) from medical rehabilitation facilities identified challenges in service provision, education and attitudes/approaches to people with disabilities, using consensus agreement for objectives listed in the GDAP. RESULTS: Respondents agreed on the following challenges in implementing the GDAP: shortage of skilled work-force, fragmented healthcare system, poor coordination between acute and subacute healthcare sectors, limited health services infrastructure and funding, lack of disability data, poor legislation, lack of guidelines and accreditation standards, limited awareness/knowledge of disability, socio-cultural perceptions and geo-topographical issues. The main facilitators included: need for governing/leadership bodies, engagement of healthcare professionals and institutions using a multi-sectoral approach, new partnerships and strategic collaboration, provision of financial and technical assistance, future policy direction, research and development. CONCLUSION: The barriers to implementing the GDAP identified here highlight the emerging priorities and challenges in the development of rehabilitation medicine and GDAP implementation in a developing country. The GDAP summary actions were useful planning tools to improve access and strengthen rehabilitation services.

Implementation of a technology-assisted programme to intensify upper limb rehabilitation in neurologically impaired participants: A prospective study.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the implementation of a technology-assisted programme to intensify upper limb rehabilitation after stroke and other neurological conditions in an Australian community cohort. METHODS: A "Hand Hub" was established in a tertiary hospital. Intervention was delivered via individual or group sessions for a period of up to 6 weeks, in addition to the patients' regular therapy. Patients were assessed before and after the programme using validated measures. RESULTS: A total of 92 participants completed both assessments (mean age 57 years (standard deviation 17 years), 58% male and 88% with stroke). Post-intervention, participants showed significant improvement in arm function and strength (p < 0.001, effect sizes (r) = 0.5-0.7), streamlined Wolf Motor Function Test score (p < 0.05, r = 0.2-0.4), improved muscle tone on the Modified Ashworth Scale (p < 0.001, r = 0.4), Functional Independence Measure (locomotion, mobility and psychosocial subscales (p < 0.05, r = 0.2-0.3). Quality of life (EQ-5D) and overall health also improved significantly (p < 0.01 for all, r = 0.3-0.6). CONCLUSION: The "Hand Hub" programme is feasible and showed promising results for upper limb function in persons with neurological disorders. The findings need to be further confirmed in a larger study sample, with a longer follow-up.